Economic Forecasting Econ 493 B1

1. After determining a potential topic you can discuss your choice with me to assess its feasibility. However, any such discussions should occur prior to submitting the proposal. A one-page proposal should identify the time series you plan to work on, including data source. You should also use R to report summary statistics and a time series plot. The research proposal is worth 10% of your final mark for the paper and is due on Friday February 15 at 11:59 am. A change in topic resulting from an inadequately researched proposal will result in a grade reduction.

2. Students will also be required to give a short presentation (10 minutes) on their forecasting project. Students should prepare 5 to 10 slides with the selected time series, some preliminary results (mainly graphs and tables), and a short discussion of any problems being faced. Presentations will start on Tuesday March 26 and will continue until every student has presented. Students should be ready to present at any time and you are expected to attend every class.

5. The finished document can be no more than 10 pages (with graphs and tables). An appendix (which doesn’t count against the 10-page limit) should include a data appendix with definitions of all variables used and their sources, R code used to get the results, and any additional results that you obtained. 2 6. Two copies of the paper must be submitted along with your data, command files, and output files that correspond to the results reported in your paper. You should ensure that command files run correctly. One copy must be a printed hard copy. The other copy should be submitted by email in electronic format (pdf, R code, data). 7. Keep back-up copies of your data, code, and your paper write-up on a separate data storage device (for example, Dropbox, USB memory stick). Late penalties will not be waived because you lose or misplace your data and/or results, or because a computer can no longer read your files. 8. Be sure to acknowledge any ideas or quotations obtained from others by the proper use of footnotes and/or references. 9. The grade will depend on both analysis and writing. Everything else equal, interesting and challenging projects will get better grades. Technical errors will affect your grade, even if they are minor. The same applies for less than professional writing. You are expected to write every word in the paper. Quoted material from books and notes must be properly cited. You need to cite your data source. All students are expected to be familiar with the aspects of the Code of Student Behaviour contained. 

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